Bitcoin moves in a roughly four-year rhythm anchored to its halvings. This is a live tracker of where we stand — the countdown, how far through the cycle we are, and what the classic valuation gauges say. The twist in this cycle: Bitcoin has grown up and is increasingly macro-driven, so the halving clock and the Fed can now disagree about where the bottom is.
The member tool adds the 4-year cycle overlaid on every prior cycle, the composite cycle-temperature dial, Pi Cycle / 2-year / 200-week gauges, the on-chain bottom-signal checklist, spot-ETF demand, the Fed macro lens, an AI read of where the cycle sits, and a tracker of the pros' bottom calls — all in one page, part of the $30/mo platform.
SEE THE $30/MO PLAN →Every ~210,000 blocks (about four years) the Bitcoin block reward halves, cutting new supply. Historically the price has peaked roughly 12–18 months after each halving and bottomed around 12 months before the next one. That rhythm has held across 2012, 2016 and 2020 — but each cycle's amplitude has shrunk as the asset matured.
With spot ETFs and institutional ownership, Bitcoin increasingly trades on Fed policy and real rates rather than the halving alone. That's why the two lenses can diverge: the halving clock may say the low is still months out, while the macro read says it may already be in. The member tool shows both, and the gap between them.
As of today, it has been 825 days since the April 2024 halving — about 56.5% through the nominal 4-year cycle. The next halving is estimated around 2028-04-14. Historically the cycle low prints roughly 12 months before the next halving, which points to a textbook bottom around Apr 2027.
Based on the current block height (959,349) and the ~10-minute block time, the next halving is estimated around 2028-04-14, when the block reward drops from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.
It depends which lens you use. The traditional 4-year halving cycle suggests the deepest accumulation window is roughly 12 months before the next halving. But Bitcoin is increasingly macro-driven — some analysts argue that if the Fed eases and growth holds, the low may already be in, earlier than the halving clock implies. The full tracker shows both lenses side by side and where they diverge.
The classic price-derived cycle gauges are the Mayer Multiple (price ÷ 200-day MA), the Pi Cycle ratio, the 2-year MA multiplier, and the 200-week moving average — plus on-chain and sentiment reads like Fear & Greed. No single one is decisive; historically bottoms print when several align.
Live figures update hourly from public block data and price history. The halving cycle is a historical pattern, not a guarantee; Bitcoin is volatile and may not repeat prior cycles. Nothing here is financial advice.