The Fortress Simulator stress-tests your portfolio against six real economic crisis scenarios — 2008 financial collapse, stagflation, hyperinflation, dollar collapse, tech bubble 2.0, and global debt crisis — showing side-by-side what you keep and what you lose in each.
Most retail investors have never run a stress test on their holdings. The results are almost always sobering — and that's the point. See the damage now, while you can still do something about it.
Every scenario uses real historical asset class returns from the period it models. Side-by-side comparison shows your best-case and worst-case across all six.
Lehman-style credit event. S&P -57%, housing -30%, corporate bonds -20%, gold +25%.
CPI 20%+. Cash and bonds destroyed. Hard assets, commodities, and inflation-linked instruments as the only shelter.
High inflation + recession. The scenario where both stocks AND bonds lose in real terms simultaneously.
Reserve currency pressure event. USD devaluation vs. gold, CHF, commodities, and foreign equity.
Valuation compression in growth/tech. P/E multiples collapse from 30x+ to 15x historical norms.
Sovereign debt spiral. Contagion from overleveraged government balance sheets hitting bond markets globally.
Institutional hedging strategies for each crisis scenario type.
Current global macro risk levels that feed the stress scenarios.
Your personal inflation rate and purchasing power timeline.
9-factor analysis to find positions resilient to your key risk scenario.
A portfolio stress test applies historical or hypothetical economic shock scenarios to your current holdings and shows the estimated impact on your total wealth. It answers the question: "If 2008 happened again tomorrow, what would my portfolio actually be worth?" Most retail investors have never stress-tested their portfolios and are shocked by the results.
You input your approximate portfolio allocation across major asset classes (stocks, bonds, cash, gold, real estate, crypto, commodities). The Fortress Simulator applies real historical return data from past crises to each asset class and shows the portfolio outcome, plus a side-by-side comparison across all six scenarios to identify your worst-case exposure.
Stagflation is historically the most dangerous scenario for the typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio because both assets lose in real terms simultaneously. The 1970s saw the 60/40 portfolio lose approximately 40% of its real purchasing power over a decade. Most modern portfolios are not positioned for this scenario at all.
The simulator is a diagnostic tool — it shows the damage, not a prescription. The Money GPS also includes a Portfolio Shield tool that outlines institutional-grade hedging strategies for each scenario type, and the Macro Compass for tracking current global risk levels. Together they give you the full picture: current risk, stress scenario impact, and hedging options.
Results are based on historical asset class correlations and drawdowns from real crisis periods. They are educational estimates, not guaranteed predictions — correlations shift during crises (often increasing), which can make outcomes worse than historical averages. The simulator deliberately uses conservative assumptions and shows a range rather than a single number.